Sector Report

Residential Markets

Affordability has compressed, but structural undersupply and relentless in-migration keep a floor under DFW housing prices.

The End of "Cheap" Dallas

For decades, the primary pitch for corporate relocation to Dallas was affordable housing. While DFW remains a discount compared to coastal metros (San Francisco, New York, Seattle), the absolute cost of housing has shifted dramatically.

The median home price in Collin County now exceeds $520,000, up over 45% since 2019. Coupled with mortgage rates hovering around 7%, the monthly payment required to buy a median-priced home has essentially doubled in five years.

New Construction Premium

Production builders are capturing an outsized share of the market by buying down mortgage rates for buyers (often to 5.5% or lower). This is pulling demand away from existing home sales, where sellers are reluctant to give up their sub-3% pandemic-era mortgages.

Multifamily Rents Stabilize

After blistering rent growth in 2021 and 2022 (peaking at 18% YoY in some submarkets), DFW apartment rents have flattened, and in some Class A submarkets, slightly declined.

This is entirely a function of supply. DFW is currently delivering roughly 30,000 apartment units per year—the highest volume in the nation. However, with new starts plummeting due to capital costs, this supply wave will crest in 2024, likely leading to a resumption of rent growth by late 2025.