The gravity of
Dallas growth.

DFW added 152,000 residents in 2023 alone. The infrastructure is straining, the commercial real estate market is bifurcating, and the tax base is swelling. Here is what is actually happening.

The Fundamentals

8.1M
DFW Population

The fourth largest metro in the US, expected to surpass Chicago by 2030.

4.3M
Total Employment

Led by professional services, finance, and logistics. 138,000 jobs added YoY.

24 Fortune 500s
Corporate HQs

Including ExxonMobil, McKesson, and AT&T. The corporate relocation pipeline remains robust.

$399k
Median Home Price

Up from $260k in 2019, compressing affordability but maintaining a discount to coastal metros.

The Flight to Quality is Real.

The narrative that "office is dead" misses the nuance of the Dallas market. While 1980s-vintage towers in the CBD are facing foreclosure or painful residential conversions, new construction in Uptown, Preston Center, and the Harwood District is commanding record rents exceeding $70/SF NNN.

Industrial remains strong, driven by nearshoring and the I-35 logistics corridor, though the record 70M SF pipeline is finally beginning to temper rent growth.

Read the Commercial Report

Q3 Cap Rates by Asset Class

Multifamily (Class A) 5.0% - 5.25%
Industrial (Core) 5.25% - 5.5%
Retail (Grocery Anchored) 6.0% - 6.5%
Office (Suburban) 8.5%+

*Estimates based on recent closed transactions. See our Cap Rate Tool.

Interactive Tools

Run the numbers yourself. Our calculators use standard Dallas-market assumptions for property tax, insurance, and lending rates.

DFW Job Growth vs. Housing Starts (2018-2023)

Despite record housing starts in 2021-2022, DFW has structurally underbuilt housing relative to job creation for a decade, maintaining a floor on residential pricing even as rates rise.

Read Economic Analysis

Essential Reading