Sector Report

Commercial Real Estate

The macro narrative oversimplifies DFW. Office is polarizing, industrial is digesting a record pipeline, and well-located retail is essentially full. Here is the asset-level data.

Office: The Bifurcation

The headline vacancy rate for DFW office sits near 21%, a historic high. However, this figure masks a profound flight to quality. Newer Class A assets (built post-2015) in premier submarkets like Uptown and Preston Center are seeing vacancy rates below 12% and asking rents pushing past $65/SF NNN.

Conversely, older stock in the CBD and suburban nodes (like the Stemmons Freeway corridor) face mounting distress, with values dropping 30-50% from peak. Conversions to residential remain difficult due to deep floorplates and high costs, meaning many of these assets are destined for demolition or long-term obsolescence.

Key Metric: Net Absorption

Q3 2024 saw negative net absorption of 1.2M SF, driven almost entirely by large block givebacks from tech and telecom tenants in legacy campuses. Meanwhile, sub-10,000 SF leasing velocity remains strong.

Industrial: Digesting the Pipeline

DFW remains a national logistics hub. After an unprecedented construction boom, the market is finally seeing supply outpace demand. Over 70 million square feet delivered in the past 12 months, pushing vacancy from a record low of 4.5% up to 8.2%.

Despite the uptick in vacancy, rent growth has merely decelerated, not declined. Landlords are offering higher tenant improvements (TI) and months of free rent to secure leases, but face rates hold steady.

Submarket Vacancy Avg Asking Rent (NNN) Pipeline (SF)
South Dallas 9.1% $5.25 12M
Great Southwest 6.5% $6.80 3M
North Fort Worth 8.8% $5.95 18M